Seasonal and Annual Probabilistic Forecasting of Water Levels in Large Lakes (Case Study of the Ladoga Lake)

Natalia V. Myakisheva; Ekaterina V. Gaidukova; Sergei V. Shanochkin; Anna A. Batmazova

doi:10.56431/p-20t2l7

Paper Titles

Relationship between Nematodes and some Soil Properties in the Rhizosphere of Banana Plants
p.1

Seasonal and Annual Probabilistic Forecasting of Water Levels in Large Lakes (Case Study of the Ladoga Lake)
p.13

Pollutant Removal from Sewage in Tropical Climate by Constructed Wetland System: An Asset for Irrigation
p.20

The Small-Scale Variation of Herb-Layer Community Structure in a Riparian Mixed Forest
p.44

HomeInternational Letters of Natural SciencesInternational Letters of Natural Sciences Vol. 82Seasonal and Annual Probabilistic Forecasting of...

Seasonal and Annual Probabilistic Forecasting of Water Levels in Large Lakes (Case Study of the Ladoga Lake)

Abstract:

The production functions of water-dependent sectors of the economy can include the water level in the lake as a natural resource. This characteristic must be able to reliably predict for the effective functioning of sectors of the economy. In the article the main attention is paid to the methods of forecasting based on the extrapolation of natural variations of the large lakes water level. As an example, is considered. In this paper, it is assumed that the level varies accordingly to a stochastic multi-cycle process with principal energy-containing zones in frequency bands associated with seasonal and multi-annual variations. Hence, the multi-year monthly and yearly averaged time series are represented by the ARIMA (auto-regression integrated moving average) processes. Forecasts are generated by using of the seasonal ARIMA-models, which take into account not only the seasonal but also the evolution non-stationarity. To compare the forecasts and the actual values, the relative errors are computed. It is shown that implementation of the models mainly allows receiving good and excellent forecasts. Subject Classification Numbers: UDC 556.555.2.06(4)

By email View Pdf

Info:

Periodical:

International Letters of Natural Sciences (Volume 82)

Pages:

13-19

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.56431/p-20t2l7

Citation:

Cite this paper

Online since:

April 2021

Authors:

Natalia V. Myakisheva, Ekaterina V. Gaidukova*, Sergei V. Shanochkin, Anna A. Batmazova

Keywords:

ARIMA Model, Large Lake, Seasonal Fluctuation, Statistical Forecasting, Water Level, Water Resources

Export:

RIS, BibTeX

Permissions:

Creative Commons CC BY 4.0

Citation:

* - Corresponding Author

References

[1] V. Burlov, A. Grobitski, A. Grobitskaya, Construction management in terms of indicator of the successfully fulfilled production task, Magazine of Civil Engineering. 63(3) (2016) 77−91.

DOI: 10.5862/MCE.63.5

Google Scholar

[2] V. Burlov, A. Andreev, F. Gomazov, Development of a model for the management of environmental safety of the region, taking into account of the GIS capacity (2018).

DOI: 10.1051/matecconf/201819302038

Google Scholar

[3] E. Shevnina and et al., Assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the Russian Arctic, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21(5) (2017) 2559–2578.

DOI: 10.5194/hess-21-2559-2017

Google Scholar

[4] A. Aksenov, A. Rybalko, M. Naumenko, Geomorphology of Lake Ladoga basin, Limnology and Freshwater Biology. 4 (2020) 492–494.

DOI: 10.31951/2658-3518-2020-A-4-492

Google Scholar

[5] N. Filatov, L. Rukhovets, Ladoga Lake and Onego Lake (Lakes Ladozhskoye and Onezhskoye), Encyclopedia of Earth Sciences Series. 2012. 429–432.

DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4020-4410-6_197

Google Scholar

[6] S. Karetnikov, M. Leppäranta, A. Montonen, A time series of over 100 years of ice seasons on Lake Ladoga, Journal of Great Lakes Research. 43(6) (2017) 979–988.

DOI: 10.1016/j.jglr.2017.08.010

Google Scholar

[7] Ladoga. Institute of Lakes Science RAS (2013), https://www.rgo.ru/sites/default/files/media/ 2013/08/ladoga.pdf.

Google Scholar

[8] A.M. Doganovsky, N.V. Myakisheva, The water level of Lake Ladoga in different frequency ranges, University of Joensuu, Publications of Karelian Institute. 129 (2000) 374–377. (In Russian).

Google Scholar

[9] A.M. Doganovsky, N.V. Myakisheva, Rejim napolneniya ozer raznykh klassov vodoobmena, VI Vsesojuzniy gidrologicheskiy sezd. Sektsiya 5 (2006) 137–140. (In Russian).

Google Scholar

[10] Box and Jenkins, Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and Control (2013).

DOI: 10.1057/9781137291264_6

Google Scholar

[11] Guide to Hydrological Practice. Water resources management and practical application of hydrological methods, WMO. Volume II (2012), http://www.whycos.org/hwrp/guide/russian/ 168_Vol_II_ru.pdf.

Google Scholar

[12] V.V. Kovalenko, E.V. Gaidukova, The phenomenon of nonzero norm of long-term changes in the total water supply in river basins, American journal of environmental sciences. 11(2) (2015) 76–80.

DOI: 10.3844/ajessp.2015.76.80

Google Scholar

[13] V.V. Kovalenko, E.V. Gaidukova, D.V. Chistyakov, A. Hamlili, Prognostic models of development of processes of catastrophic long-term annual river runoff formation, Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, 10 (2010) 695–699.

DOI: 10.3103/S1068373910100079

Google Scholar